Why do they suck?
First, there isn't really anything CSM do better than anyone else. Chaos Space Marines are the worst troop unit in the game because they are expensive and fail morale very easily, even with Veterans of the long war (which is very pale in comparison to the equally priced And they shall know no fear). Spamming cultists is not as effective as spamming guardsmen or orks, even if they are plague zombies which are actually quite good. Typhus is pretty weak besides the plague zombie benefit though (slow, swings last, can't take on walkers or STR10, must use Nurgle powers), so it's a bit of a catch 22. Maulerfiends are much better than dreadnoughts, but dreadnoughts are really bad so who cares. Heldrakes are excellent anti air and anti-infantry, but killing infantry isn't hard and aircraft aren't great in Maelstrom. Obliterators are solid but they aren't devastator centurions, especially now that three multi-meltas are far from a guaranteed kill on a vehicle. They also struggle against monstrous creatures the same way marines do but don't even have access to grav weaponry. Chaos bikes cost the same as marine bikes but can't become troops, get attack bikes or take grav guns. Spawn are only good at tarpitting (though they are very good at that) and killing infantry. They are a bit expensive for both roles. Daemon princes are absurdly over-costed for how fragile they are and how many upgrades they need to actually be a threat in assault (must have axe of fury or mace). Defilers are too expensive given that half their armament is wasted each game. Khorne lords on juggernauts are great but don't have a great unit to ride with - they go better with Khorne Daemonkin where they have sublime synergy with hounds. Dark apostles and techmarines are totally shit, as are terminators, raptors, warp talons and possessed. Khorne beserkers aren't much use without assault vehicles that aren't super expensive land raiders that can't fit the extra IC with power fists bezerkers need to expand their threat range to heavy infantry, vehicles and MCs. Thousand sounds would be good counters to bikes if they weren't so crazy expensive and/or actually had damage output that was useful against any target other than MEQ. Noise Marines would have potential if they could take more blast masters. Plague marines are good if you can get them objective secured, but the Lord is a hefty tax.
Most of the people I see playing CSM are playing something similar to 5th edition Lash prince lists with a lot of vindicators, obliterators and plague marines. It doesn't work so good because vindicators can't kill monstrous creatures or tanks and the infantry is kind of clunky. Other people are using a lot of sorcery but don't have a good beat stick to cast invisibility on. They end up with super durable units that can't kill anything. Since daemonkin dropped everyone who doesn't mind Khorne has swapped to double dog pack with 2 juggernaut lords backed by some other stuff (commonly soul grinders, a bloodthirster, heldrakes and cultists to sit on back field objectives, sometimes land raiders full of beserkers).
I've found that CSM have comparative advantages in only two areas. Spell familiars make CSM perhaps the premier army at casting high warp charge spells like summoning, except for maybe Eldar with Farseers in councils. And the CSM codex has quite a few good tarpit units. Putting these together you can make a curious army that just sits on objectives and waits to die, except it doesn't because it has high toughness, feel no pain and daemon invulnerable saves. You can squeeze in a few other things to help you score other Maelstrom missions like blood and guts, big game hunter, win a challenge etc. I've been working towards the following:
GRAND FATHER NURGLE'S OB-SEC TARPIT ARMY
Typhus
Daemon Prince ML3, wings, mark of nurgle, spell familiar
Sorcerer ML3, force axe, spell familiar
20 Plague Zombies (Typhus)
18 plague zombies (Sorcerer)
9 Plague Marines in Rhino with 2 meltaguns
5 spawn with mark of nurgle
3 obliterators with mark of nugle
1496 points
You start with 8 warp charge and 2 spell familiars. Turn 1 you hope you get a decent role on the warp table and then throw everything at two instances of summoning to get horrors. After that you spam daemonettes early to try to kill things and then swap to Plague bearers to sit on objectives and screamers to boost onto objectives that get forgotten.
The army is pretty simple. Everything is hard to kill and you summon more hard to kill units. You make your way over to objectives and then sit on them. Good luck getting through all that high toughness and feel no pain. A lot of it is also objective secured. The plaguemarines with their meltaguns and the obliterators might be able to get you big game hunter. Monstrous creatures you can poison in assault. Typhus, the plague marines, the daemon prince (late game) or the spawn might be able to get you blood and guts (daemonettes get it pretty easily). The Prince and especially Typhus can handle a lot of challenges, just keep him away from walkers because STR 10 AP2 will kill him instantly. As the game progresses you may be able to choke the board with bodies an enact some area denial. This is critical against bikes. Remember that units cannot go within 1 of an enemy. This can allow you to set up lanes through which enemy bikes and the like have to move if they want to get close to the objective you have, at which point Typhus can reach out and touch them. Use bodies to bubble wrap objectives for inches until enemy units can't zoom over to them for a cheap score.
So mostly you just don't die. The prince swoops into the middle of the board, summons and then runs off the board into ongoing reserves. Rinse and repeat. Late game he can swap into glide to score an objective, maybe assault a weakened infantry unit or a wounded MC. If he finds himself on the table unexpectedly he can jink for a 2+ cover save. It's not like he has a gun or anything. This sort of ob-sec spam is, I think, better done by marines, but this is a novel approach. Compared to marines you trade mobility for durability. The Spawn, Rhino, summoning prince and obliterators should allow you to grab mid-field objectives on turn 1 and 2 until the slow moving parts of the army arrive to go to ground. This is the 1850 version:
Typhus
Daemon Prince ML3, wings, mark of nurgle, spell familiar
Sorcerer ML3, force axe, spell familiar
20 Plague Zombies (Typhus)
17 plague zombies (Sorcerer)
6 Plague Marines in Rhino with 2 meltaguns
6 Plague Marines in Rhino with 2 meltaguns
5 spawn with mark of nurgle
3 obliterators with mark of nurgle
3 obliterators with mark of nurgle
1847 points
It's just more of the same shit. You get a little bit more firepower and another Rhino to help you grab those early game objectives and potentially boost onto something late game. Would be nice to get a bike for that sorcerer so he can role with the Spawn but that might just get him killed. Would also be nice to get some havoc launchers on the Rhinos but maybe best to keep them cheap. The other approach I'm thinking is to abandon the marines entirely and go full cultist, maybe 4 units of 20, then put the sorcerer with some bikes (axe, 2 melta guns) so they can spot kill things. I would definitely go this option if Chaos Knights were a thing. Alas, one eye open would be devastating in a list like this that tries to spread out and choke the board.
What would make other builds in Chaos viable? What I really mean is, what does Chaos need to make it competitive (other than just another Drake type thing you can spam)?
1. An assault transport. I'm thinking a Sicaran chasis with all the guns stripped out. 13/12/10 and 12 transport capacity with just a twin linked Hades Autocannon, dirge caster and smoke launchers for about 100 points. Cannot carry bulky models. Combined with dread claws this would allow Chaos to actually mount a close assault. It would also be fluffy as Chaos converts its old wrecked Heresy era tanks to metal boxes. Another option would be some kind of daemon engine that eats the troops inside to restore hull points. I think the main thing is the armour level between a Rhino and a land raider relatively cheap because it has almost no guns. That would be a unique thing for Chaos (though I suppose battlewagons are kind of similar), and it would make for a unique approach to assaults. You don't have a lot of assault units, maybe 4 in transports, but they are quality. Note that an assault ram wouldn't do the trick because it doesn't come in until turn 2, by which point you really need to be in combat. I would accept an assault ram converted to a skimmer, but this doesn't strike me as being very Chaos Space Marine.
2. For close assault to really work you would also need to make the assault units a little bit better or at least multi-purpose. Spawn and possessed can only handle light infantry and Beserkers don't fair much better. The transport would be enough to make Zerks good because you could give the champion a fist and attach a lord with a fist and actually protect those points until they reach assault - 9 attacks at STR 10 AP2 on the charge and a bunch more in front with AP5, STR5 and WS5. That's a threat to just about anything.
3. Chaos Knights would fill so many holes in Chaos it's kind of hilarious.
4. The defiler either needs to come down about 30 points or get armour 13/12/12 or at least 13/12/11, and a rule that it ignores intervening terrain that isn't taller than it is (climbs over it). That would make it able to actually reach something with its fists occasionally.
5. Chaos bikes need hit and run and some rule for their spiked wheels like vector strikes. Maybe if they turbo boost past a unit it takes D6*bikes Str 3 AP- hits.
6. Daemon princes need to be a lot cheaper
7. The heldrake needs a turret mounted weapon that doesn't allow you to swivel the flamer template itself i.e. 360 degrees firing arc but the template must point straight out from the model. Then the heldrake would be worth taking again to roast infantry and do the amazing vector strike a Rhino and then nuke the contents combo. Since it took the nerf bat it has becomes pretty shit.
8. Cheaper thousand sons, more blast masters on noise marines, 22 point plague marines.
9. Cataphrac terminator armour (4+ invul but slow and purposeful rather than relentless). This would be totally fluffy and make Typhus and obliterators, among other things, much more competitive.
10. Get rid of the champion of chaos rule. It is soooooo painful.
11. Stubborn for CSM
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